The Hill 

11/2/2009

Aaron Blake

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman was primed to win Tuesday’s special election both before and after Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out, according to a new poll.

The Public Policy Polling survey shows Hoffman leading the race by 17 points, 51-34, over Democrat Bill Owens with Scozzafava still in the race and taking 13 percent. In a straight head-to-head matchup with Owens, Hoffman’s lead held at 54-38.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, during which time Scozzafava dropped out of the race Saturday and endorsed Owens on Sunday, but Hoffman led significantly at all stages.

Scozzafava dropping out of the race was initially seen as a boon to Hoffman, but this polling suggests her dropping out and backing Owens might have been his only hope to defeat Hoffman.

As it turned out, the poll shows that Scozzafava was taking such a negligible share of the vote that her exit probably didn’t matter. And she will remain on the ballot, so even those who were going to vote for her still can.

For all the talk about 3rd Party "spoilers", this revealed Scozzafava was the real spoiler. If the race is that close between Hoffman and Owens, her negligible affect and being on the ballot could still make a difference.

The Republican Party has defeated their own argument on almost all counts. The only other shoe to drop now is an ACORN or DNC connection in this election. And didn’t I read here that Dems have already challenged the machine angle? The DNC defeated theirs with Lieberman. So here’s to truth about election spoilers.  But then it is not so much about election "spoilers" as about the spoils of elections.

This race has exposed everything. The only question concerns how many Americans, and especially conservatives, have actually paid attention.

Dr. Keyes' "Winnowing Season" continues apace.

I'm proud of our people for their diligent, principled work in that crucial process.